The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Office of the Actuary released projections of National Health Expenditures (NHE) and health insurance enrollment for the years 2022-2031. Average annual growth in national health spending over the next decade projected to be 5.4 percent.
CMS projects that the average annual growth in NHE will outpace average annual growth in gross domestic product (GDP), calculated at 4.6 percent, resulting in an increase in the health spending share of GDP from 18.3 percent in 2021 to 19.6 percent in 2031.
The insured percentage of the population is projected to have reached a historic high of 92.3 percent in 2022 due to high Medicaid enrollment and gains in Affordable Care Act Marketplace coverage. It is expected to remain at that rate through 2023.
If current law provisions in the Affordable Care Act are allowed to expire at the end of 2025, the insured share of the population is projected to be 91.2 percent. In 2031, the insured share of the population is projected to be 90.5 percent, similar to pre-pandemic levels.
Growth in physician and clinical services spending is projected to average 5.3 percent over 2022-2031. An expected deceleration in growth in 2022, to 2.4 percent from 5.6 percent in 2021, reflects slowing growth in the use of services following the pandemic-driven rebound in use in 2021.
For 2025-2031, average spending growth for physician and clinical services is projected to be 5.7 percent, with an expectation that average Medicare spending growth (8.1 percent) for these services will exceed that of average private health insurance growth (4.6 percent) partly as a result of comparatively faster growth in Medicare enrollment.
To read the report, visit the Office of the Actuary’s 2022-2031 projections.
