On the list of American mass killers, diabetes is tough to beat. The condition is the sixth most common cause of death in the United States, according the American Diabetes Association (ADA), killing more than 72,000 Americans per year. As of 2007-the most recent year for which statistics are available-57 million Americans were pre-diabetic, and 23.6 million Americans already had the disease. Now, a report by researchers at the University of Chicago, Illinois, indicates that the number of Americans with diabetes may nearly double in the next 25 years, and costs associated with the disease may triple.
A team led by Elbert S. Huang, MD, MPH, developed algorithms to forecast individuals’ movement across different body mass index (BMI) categories, predicted the population’s incidence of diabetes and screening, and considered the expected progression of the disease and its complications through the year 2034. The team’s study population was patients between the ages of 24 and 85 who were surveyed in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and National Health Interview Survey. According to the Huang’s report, available in the December Diabetes Care, the number of people with either diagnosed or undiagnosed diabetes is predicted to jump to 44.1 million, and annual diabetes-related spending is projected to expand from the current $113 billion to $336 billion in 2007 dollars. The impact on Medicare will be high: 6.4 million additional people with diabetes will join the Medicare-eligible population by 2034, with associated Medicare spending rising from $45 billion to $171 billion.
“Without significant changes in public or private strategies, this population and cost growth are expected to add a significant strain to an overburdened health care system,” the study authors concluded in the article.
